Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Forecast Discussion

Breezy moderate tradewinds are forecast for Hawai'i today.  High pressure is the dominant weather feature for the islands but an area of tropical moisture to the south will bring a chance for enhanced showers mainly to the eastern end of the state.  A few off shore thunderstorms are possible off of Kaua'i today from an upper level trough located NW of the Garden Island.  

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands today, expect fair weather with possible sprinkles.
 
Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy

Weather: 
AM:  Fair
PM:  Possible Isolated Sprinkles

Winds:
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt

Temperatures:
High: 88°F/31°C
Low: 72°F/22°C
Sea:  78°F/26°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 03-05ft
Swell:  SSW 01-02ft 17s NE 02-03 08s
Combined: E 06-09ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 05-10kt
PM: NW
 10-15kt
Combined:  ENE 02-04ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: SW 08-13kt
Combined: 
ENE 02-04ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
SLIGHT

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
NONE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands is knee to waist high.


Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW025 BKN060
PM: FEW025 BKN050 
Weather:
AM:  FAIR
PM:  -SHRA
Surface Winds
AM: 08005kt
PM: 31010G18kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 07020/23
030: 08020/18
050: 08020/15
100: 12010/11
150: 19005/01
200: 23010/M09
250: 260200/M18
300: 28030/M30
Cloud Bases: 2,500ft
Min Ceiling: 4,500ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 7,500ft
Freezing level: 15,400ft
Turbulence: MODERATE BLW 080 S THRU W OF MTN
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 30.02
Max DA: 1000ft
Max PA: -70ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:   Possible Isolated Sprinkles
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:  Possible Isolated Sprinkles
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, July 19, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC