Monday, March 19, 2018

Forecast Discussion

High pressure to the north driving typical tradewind flow will edge closer to the state over the next few days, supporting favorable weather and only isolated showers imbedded within the trades.  For today, light mid-morning showers are likely with clearing into the afternoon. 

North Pacific Surface Analysis

Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, mostly sunny conditions today with slight possibility of light sprinkles pushed over the mountains mid-morning.

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy

AM:  Fair
PM:  Fair

AM: E 03-8kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt

High: 75°F/24°C
Low: 63°F/17°C
Sea:  79°F/26°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 1-2ft
Swell:  E 03-05ft 10s
Combined: E 03-05ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: E 10-15G20
PM: E 10-15G20kt

Combined: E 01-03ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: SE 8-13G18kt
PM: SE 10-15G20kt
Combined: E 03-05ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be waist high.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):

AM: FEW020 SCT040 SCT180
PM: FEW025 SCT050 BKN180
Surface Winds
AM: 06005kt
PM: 27010G15kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 08020/19
030: 09015/15
050: VRB05/13
100: VRB05/04
150: VRB05/M03
200: 27020/M15
250: 27020/M21
300: 27025/M36
Cloud Bases: 1,800ft
Min Ceiling: 3,800ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 6,500ft
Freezing level: 13,000ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: LGT FL200-250
Min Altimeter: 29.88
Max DA: 600ft
Max PA: 50ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Tuesday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Fair
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Wednesday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Fair
Winds: NW 10-15G20kt

The next forecast will be issued on Tuesday, March 20, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center