Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Forecast Discussion

Expect strong Tradewinds to continue to cover the state through the end of the workweek.  The winds will carry in fast moving rain showers that will affect mainly mauka and windward loacations.  Some showers will make it to leeward spots.  A Small Craft Advisory continues for Hawaiian waters through Thursday.  
North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, expect fair weather with a few showers.

AM: Partly Cloudy
PM: Partly to Mostly Cloudy

Weather: 
Possible Showers 
Winds:
AM: Var 3-8kt
PM: NW 10-15G20kt

Temperatures:
High: 86°F/27°C
Low: 73°F/23°C
Sea:  78°F/26°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: 10-11ft
Swell:  NE 3ft 13s  SSW 1ft 16s
Combined: NW 11-12ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 3-8kt
PM: NE 10-15G20kt

Combined: NE 4-5ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: VAR <5kt font="">
PM: NW 3-8G13kt
Combined: N 2-3ft


Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
NONE

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
NONE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be waist to chest high.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW020 SCT050
PM: FEW020 SCT-BKN050
Weather:
AM:  FAIR
PM:  -SHRA
Surface Winds
AM: VRB05kt
PM: 31015kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 06525/23
030: 06527/17
050: 07530/13
100: 09033/05
150: 04510/05
200: 06517/M07
250: 07027/M20
300: 32514/M32
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 8,000ft
Freezing level: 13,500ft
Turbulence: AIRMET TANGO SW OF ALL ISLANDS.
Icing:  NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.99ins
Max DA: 1148ft
Max PA: -52ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Wednesday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Possible showers
Winds: NW 3-8G13kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Possible Showers
Winds: NW 3-813G13kt

The next forecast will be issued on Wednesday, October 18, 2017.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC