Thursday, May 24, 2018

Forecast Discussion

A breezy trade winds regime is forecast for the Aloha State.  This weather system caused by strong high pressure will continue through the end of the work week.  Showers will focus over mainly mauka and windward locations. 


North Pacific Surface Analysis

Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, skies are forecast to be partly cloudy with a few light sprinkles in the afternoon.  
 
Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy

Weather: 
AM:  Fair
PM:  -SHRA

Winds:
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt

Temperatures:
High: 78°F/26°C
Low: 64°F/18°C
Sea:  82°F/28°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: NE 05-06ft
Swell:  NW 02-03ft 10s SW 01-02ft 18s
Combined: NE 07-08ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: NE 05-10kt
PM: NW
 08-13kt
Combined: NE 03-04ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: ENE 05-10kt
PM: NW 05-10kt
Combined: NE 02-03ft 


Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
NONE

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
NONE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands is chest high.


Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW040
PM: SCT025 BKN050
Weather:
AM:  FAIR
PM:  -SHRA
Surface Winds
AM: 06005kt
PM: 31013G18kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 06020/21
030: 07020/16
050: 08020/13
100: 08005/12
150: 25010/02
200: 20015/M09
250: 21020/M22
300: 23030/M34
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 4,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 6,500ft
Freezing level: 15,100ft
Turbulence: MODERATE S-W OF MOUNTAINS BLW 080
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 30.05
Max DA: 600ft
Max PA: -120ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Saturday
Skies: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Possible Isolated Showers
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Sunday
Skies: Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy
Weather:  Possible Isolated Showers
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Friday, May 25, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC