Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Forecast Discussion

Gusty north winds and cooler temps continue following frontal passage yesterday.

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, gusty north winds expected again today.

Cloud Cover:
AM: Partly to Mostly
PM: Partly Cloudy 


AM: N 15-20G25kt
PM: N 18-24G28kt

High: 81°F/27°C
Low: 64°F/16°C
Sea:  76°F/24°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: N 6-8ft
Swell:  NW 12-16ft 15s
Combined: NW 13-17ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: N 15-20G25kt
PM: N 15-20G25kt

Combined: NW 11-13ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: N 15-20G25kt
PM: N 15-20G25kt
Combined: NW 9-11ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be triple to quadruple overhead today, lowering to double overhead tomorrow.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW020 SCT-BKN050  
PM: FEW-SCT020 SCT050 
Surface Winds
AM: 01018G24kt
PM: 01022G28kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 01015/19
030: 01015/16
050: 01015/13
100: 35020/02
150: 33030/M02
200: 33040/M10
250: 33040/M20
300: 30050/M36
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 10,000ft
Freezing level: 12,900ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing:  NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.90ins
Max DA: 1670ft
Max PA: 10ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: None
Winds: N 14-20G24kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: None
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, December 14, 2017.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center