Monday, September 24, 2018

Forecast Discussion

Low pressure to the northwest of the state will influence the weather over Kauai through mid-week.  The proximity of the low is destabilizing the weather over the Garden Island today, expect scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon.  Winds in advance of the front will draw up warm, moist air from the southeast, making overnight conditions hot and muggy.  
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands today, expect scattered showers with the possibility of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Mostly Cloudy
PM:  Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy

Weather: 
AM: Isolated Showers
PM: Scattered Showers with Possible Thunderstorms

Winds:
AM: SE 5-10kt
PM: SW 08-13G18kt
Temperatures:
High: 86°F/30°C
Low: 74°F/23°C
Sea:  80°F/27°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 5-8ft
Swell: ENE 4-6ft 10s
Combined: ENE 4-6ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: NE 5-10kt 
PM: NE 10-15t
Combined:  ENE 4-6ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: NW 08-13kt
Combined: 
ENE 4-6ft 

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
MODERATE

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
MODERATE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be waist high today.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: SCT050 BKN060
PM:  SCT030 BKN050 BKN150 
Weather:
AM: -SHRA
PM: SHRA POS TSRA
Surface Winds
AM: 07005kt
PM: 31015G20kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 08005/22
030: 09005/19
050: 13005/16
100: 20005/10
150: 22015/03
200: 22020/M12
250: 22025/M17
300: 25025/M34
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 7,000ft
Freezing level: 14,700ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.88
Max DA: 1000ft
Max PA: 40ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Tuesday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:  Scattered Rainshowers
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Wednesday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather: Isolated Rainshowers
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Tuesday, September 25, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC