Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Forecast Discussion

High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the state.  Slightly drier conditions expected over the next few days, but increased moisture moving over the western half of the state Friday could lead to enhanced shower activity.

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, expect increased high cloud cover to last into the weekend.  Slight chance for light showers over the next few days, but with enhaced moisture moving over the western half of hte state Friday, this could heighten chances for precipitation.     

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Mostly Cloudy (High Clouds)
PM:  Mostly Cloudy (High Clouds)

Weather: 
AM: Fair
PM: Fair, possible sprinkles
Winds:
AM: E 3-5kt 
PM: NW 8-13G18kt
Temperatures:
High: 85°F/29°C
Low: 69°F/21°C
Sea:  82°F/28°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 3-5ft
Swell: SW 1-2ft, 18s; NW 2-3ft, 11s 
Combined: SW 3-5ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: NE 5-10kt
PM: NNE 10-15G20kt
Combined:W 3-4ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 5-10kt
PM: SW 8-13kt
Combined: SW 2-3ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
NONE

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
NONE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be waist high today through tomorrow.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW020 FEW050 BKN160
PM: FEW020 SCTvBKN050 BKN160
Weather:
AM: NONE
PM: NONE
Surface Winds
AM: 07005kt
PM: 31010G15kt
Visibility: 10sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 09010/22
030: 09010/17
050: 07010/14
100: 06010/06
150: 04010/01
200: 03010/M09
250: 25015/M20
300: 26030/M29
Cloud Bases: 3,000ft
Min Ceiling: 3,500ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 7,000ft
Freezing level: 17,100ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.95
Max DA:  900ft
Max PA:  -50ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook:  Thursday
Skies: Mostly Cloudy 
Weather: Fair
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Fair AM, Possible Isolated PM Showers
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, June 20, 2019.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC