Friday, February 16, 2018

Forecast Discussion

Drier and stable air has settled over the western end of the Hawaiian islands for fair weather Friday and for part of Saturday.  A vigorous weather system will bring unsettled weather to the islands starting late Saturday and lasting through the holiday weekend.  

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, partly cloudy skies with isolated sprinkles.

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy

AM:  Fair
PM:  Possible Isolated Sprinkles

AM: NE 05-10kt
PM: NW 05-10kt

High: 76°F/26°C
Low: 61°F/19°C
Sea:  76°F/24°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: NW 03-04ft
Swell:  NW 04-05ft 12s 
Combined: NW 05-06ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: NE 03-08kt
PM: NW 05-10

Combined: NW 03-04ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: VAR 03-08kt
PM: NW 05-10kt
Combined: NW 01-02ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be waist high.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):

AM: FEW025 SCT050
PM: FEW030 SCT050 
Surface Winds
AM: 07010kt
PM: 22010kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 03005/20
030: 26010/16
050: 22010/12
100: 26025/08
150: 29035/M01
200: 27050/M11
250: 27055/M23
300: 28070/M33
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 15,000ft
Freezing level: 14,700ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.86ins
Max DA: 790ft
Max PA: 269ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Saturday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Scattered Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms
Winds: NE 8-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Sunday
Skies: Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Scattered Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms
Winds: NE 5-10G15kt

The next forecast will be issued on Tuesday, February 20, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center