Friday, June 22, 2018

Forecast Discussion

High pressure is building to the north, increasing tradewind flow and stabilizing the atmosphere.  Fair weather is expected through the weekend with possiblity of showers imbedded within the trades.  Showers will be mostly restricted to the windward/mauka areas, however with the increased wind flow, few showers will be pushed to the leeward side.

North Pacific Surface Analysis

Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

Fair weather at Barking Sands today.
Cloud Cover:
AM:  Mostly Clear
PM:  Mostly Cloudy

AM:  Fair
PM:  Fair

AM: E 01-05kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt

High: 84°F/29°C
Low: 70°F/21°C
Sea:  78°F/26°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 03-05ft
Swell:  E 03-06ft 06s
Combined: E 03-06ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: NE 08-13kt
Combined:  E 03-06ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: E 08-13kt
PM: SE 10-105kt
E 03-06ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands is below waist high.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW030   
PM: SCT030 BKN050
Surface Winds
AM: 10005kt
PM: 31010G18kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 09015/22
030: 09015/18
050: 09015/15
100: 09015/10
150: 09015/01
200: 09015/M11
250: 10015/M17
300: 13010/M30
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 3,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 9,000ft
Freezing level: 15,500ft
Turbulence: MOD SFC-080 S-W of MTNS
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.97
Max DA: 800ft
Max PA: -40ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Saturday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:  Fair
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Sunday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:  Fair
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Monday, Jun 25, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center