Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Forecast Discussion

Fair weather will dominate over the Garden Island today as a high pressure ridge is oriented across the Island chain.  Possible showers inland and mauka as afternoon heating will promote cloud development and the sea-breeze effect.

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, expect fair weather with on-shore winds in the afternoon.

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Mostly Clear to Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy

AM:  Fair
PM:  Fair
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: NW 10-15G20kt
High: 81°F/27°C
Low: 65°F/18°C
Sea:  74°F/23°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 0-2ft
Swell: NW 07ft-09ft 13s  
Combined: NW 07ft-09ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: S 10-15G20kt
PM: S 10-15G20kt
Combined: NW 07ft-09ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: S 10-15G20kt
PM: S 10-15G20kt
NW 07ft-09ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be overhead today, building to near triple over-head tomorrow.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW015
PM: SCT020 SCT040
Surface Winds
AM: 09005kt
PM: 31008G18kt
Visibility: 7sm 
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 17010/20
030: 17005/15
050: 16005/13
100: 21005/07
150: 31010/M02
200: 31050/M15
250: 33065/M22
300: 330100/M33
Cloud Bases: 2,000ft
Min Ceiling: 3,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 4,000ft
Freezing level: 13,500ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 30.01
Max DA: 500ft
Max PA: -60ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather:  Fair
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies:  Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Fair
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, January 24, 2019.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center