Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Forecast Discussion

High pressure dominates the weather today with a tight pressure gradient driving breezy trades.  Showers will favor mauka and windward locations.  The high pressure ridge will start to weaken Thursday and tradewinds speeds will decrease.  Showers are expected to return by Friday.  

North Pacific Surface Analysis

Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, isolated sprinkles possible in the afternoon.

Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy

AM:  Fair
PM:  Possible Isolated Sprinkles

AM: NE 03-08kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt

High: 80°F/27°C
Low: 62°F/19°C
Sea:  74°F/23°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: ENE 07-08ft
Swell:  NNW 03-04ft 10s SW 01-02ft 15s
Combined: NW 08-10ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: NNE 05-10kt
PM: NNW 10-15kt

Combined: NW 04-05ft 

South of Nohili Point:
AM: ENE 03-08kt
PM: WNW 08-13kt
Combined: NW 02

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands is knee high, building to chest high Thursday

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW025 
PM: FEW025 SCT045 
Surface Winds
AM: 07005kt
PM: 31010G15kt
Visibility: 7sm 
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 06020/21
030: 08025/15
050: 06020/12
100: 35000/07
150: 35010/01
200: 01020/M11
250: 32020/M20
300: 32020/M33
Cloud Bases: 2,500ft
Min Ceiling: 4,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 8,000ft
Freezing level: 15,000ft
Turbulence: MOD SFC-FL070 S-W of MTNS
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 30.08
Max DA: 400ft
Max PA: -140ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Possible Isolated Showers
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather: Isolated Showers
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, April 26, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center