Wednesday, November 14, 2018

Forecast Discussion

High pressure to the north is dominating the weather regime however, weakening trade wind flow will allow sea breeze to develop in the afternoon.  Isolated showers are expected in the afternoon mostly over island interior with few showers straying to the leeward side.  


Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands today, expect fair morning weather with possible isolated showers in the afternoon.


Cloud Cover:
AM:  Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy
PM:  Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy

Weather: 
AM:  Fair
PM:  Possible Isolated Showers
Winds:
AM: E 3-8Gkt
PM: SE 08-13G18kt
Temperatures:
High: 85°F/29°C
Low: 70°F/21°C
Sea:  79°F/26°C



Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: N 3-5ft
Swell: N 8-10ft 12s 
Combined: N 8-10ft




Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: NE 15-20G25kt 
PM: NE 15-20G25kt
Combined: N 8-10ft

South of Nohili Point:
Winds:
AM: E 5-10G15kt
PM: E 5-10G15kt
Combined: 
N 8-10ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:
NONE

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):
NONE

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands will be double overhead today.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM:  SCT040 OVC250
PM:  BKN040 OVC250
Weather:
AM: FAIR
PM: POS ISO SHRA
Surface Winds
AM: 07005kt
PM: 23015kt
Visibility: 7sm 
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 07010/22
030: 08010/18
050: 08010/15
100: 17005/11
150: 26020/01
200: 24035/M09
250: 26050/M18
300: 27060/M31
Cloud Bases: 4,000ft
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 7,000ft
Freezing level: 15,500ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.98
Max DA: 600ft
Max PA: 00ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs
NOTAMs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather:  Possible Isolated Showers
Winds: N 20-25G35kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Friday
Skies: Mostly Cloudy to Partly Cloudy
Weather: Fair
Winds: NE 13-18G30kt

The next forecast will be issued on Thursday, November 15, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
CPHC