Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Forecast Discussion

Tradewind flow is dominating the weather over the state.  Tradewinds will ease slightly midweek as an upper level low moves near the state.  Expect a slight increase in precipitation the second half of the work week.

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

At Barking Sands, winds will veer onshore with daytime heating.

Sky Condition:
AM: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
PM: Partly to Mostly Cloudy

AM: E 3-8kt
PM: NW 8-13G18kt

High: 84°F/27°C
Low: 74°F/23°C
Sea:  76°F/24°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: NE 5-7ft 6s
Swell:  NW 3-5ft 13s
Combined: NE 5-7ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: NE 8-13G18kt
PM: NE 8-13G18kt

Combined: NW 4-6ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: NNE 5-10G15kt
PM: NW 8-13G18kt
Combined: NW 3-5ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands be overhead through tomorrow.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: FEW020 FEW050 SCT-BKN100
Surface Winds
AM: 09010kt
PM: 31010kt
Visibility: 10sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 01010/21
030: 01010/16
050: 03005/13
100: VRB05/08
150: 35010/M01
200: 27010/M14
250: 27015/M20
300: 27030/M32
Cloud Bases: 2,00ft AGL
Min Ceiling: 5,000ft AGL
Max Low Cloud Tops: 8,500ft MSL
Freezing level: 13,500ft MSL
Turbulence: NONE
Icing:  NONE
Min Altimeter: 30.00ins
Max DA: 1200ft
Max PA: 20ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Wednesday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather: Possible Isolated Rainshowers
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Thursday
Skies: Partly Cloudy
Weather: Possible Isolated Rainshowers
Winds: NW 8-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Wednesday, March 29, 2017.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center