Monday, August 20, 2018

Forecast Discussion

A high pressure ridge is driving regular tradewind flow over the the Garden Island today.  Migrant showers imbedded within the trades will favor windward/mauka areas.  Forecast for the week is dependant on the track that Hurricane Lane takes.  There is currently low confidence in where it will go, however over the last 24hrs, the official track from Central Pacific Hurricane Center has pushed north, significantly closer to Kauai.  Model updates over the next couple days will be critical in track forecast.

North Pacific Surface Analysis
Hawaii IR Satellite Loop
Barking Sands Observations
Fleet Numerical Models
Kauai Radar

Early morning showers will clear for fair weather at Barking Sands today.
Cloud Cover:
AM:  Partly Cloudy
PM:  Partly Cloudy to Mostly Cloudy

AM: Fair
PM: Fair

AM: E 03-08kt
PM: NW 08-13G18kt
High: 87°F/31°C
Low: 75°F/24°C
Sea:  79°F/26°C

Sea State (Northern BARSTUR):
Wind Waves: E 02-04ft
Swell:  ESE 5-7ft 6s  
Combined: ESE 5-7ft

Near Shore Forecast Extending From Coastline Out To 2 Miles:

North of Nohili Point:
AM: E 05-10kt
Combined:  ESE 5-7ft

South of Nohili Point:
AM: E 03-08kt
PM: SW 08-13kt
ESE 5-7ft

Fleet Numerical WW3 Ocean Prediction Model
Hawaii Buoy Reports
NOAA Hawaii Tidal Data
Tidal Data for Waimea Bay, Kauai
Hawaii NOTMARs

Thunderstorm Potential Today:

Thunderstorm Potential Outlook (72hr):

***Although the forecast may not indicate, it should be understood that Thunderstorm activity could produce strong and gusty winds, heavy precipitation, lightning, hail, and flash flooding; along with severe turbulence and icing for aircraft operating within the vicinity.

Swell and Surf:
Surf at Barking Sands is below waist high.

Aviation Weather (PHBK):
AM: SCT050  
PM: SCT040 SCT050
Surface Winds
AM: 07005kt
PM: 31010G15kt
Visibility: 7sm
Flight Level Winds (kt)/Temperatures (°C)
010: 08010/22
030: 07010/19
050: 07010/15
100: 04005/10
150: VRB05/00
200: 31005/M12
250: VRB05/M18
300: 22015/M34
Cloud Bases: 3,000ft
Min Ceiling: 4,000ft
Max Low Cloud Tops: 7,500ft
Freezing level: 15,200ft
Turbulence: NONE
Icing: NONE
Min Altimeter: 29.96
Max DA: 900ft
Max PA: -70ft

NOAA Aviation Weather Center
Look up TAFs/METARs

Pilots, please call the office anytime to file a DD FORM-175-1. For each request, the following information will be needed: (1) Date of Flight; (2) Aircraft Type/Number/Call Sign; (3) Departure Point and Time; (4) Flight Level; (5) Destination(s)/Alternates (in case destination field is below minimums); (6) Time of arrival; (7) Name of Pilot Receiving Brief.

48hr Weather Outlook: Tuesday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather:  Fair
Winds: W 08-13G18kt

72hr Weather Outlook: Wednesday
Skies: Partly to Mostly Cloudy
Weather:  Fair
Winds: NW 08-13G18kt

The next forecast will be issued on Tuesday, August 21, 2018.

Additional METOC Links:

National Weather Service Honolulu
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center